A sharp rally in domestic stocks from June lows has once again rendered Indian markets expensive to their emerging-market (EM) peers. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Nifty50 Index is around 20.6x - 82 per cent higher than 11.3 per cent for the MSCI EM Index. India's valuation premium has hit a five-month high. This is on the back of sharp outperformance to EM and global peers from June lows and also due to earnings downgrades, following the April-June quarter of 2022-23 earnings.
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
If you are overweight on fixed-income instruments, go for ELSS, and vice versa.
Stock market investors are expecting a balanced Budget with a focus on job creation, increased spending on infrastructure, reigning in the deficit, and bringing the economy back on track, experts said on Wednesday. Stock markets have been subdued in the run-up to the Union Budget with BSE's benchmark Sensex is almost flat so far this month. Even the corporate earning season failed to excite the markets, while some indices like IT and bankex have seen some positive movements.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded from early lows to settle higher on Wednesday following buying in Reliance Industries, Larsen & Toubro and ITC and positive trends in Asian and European markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose by 173.22 points or 0.26 per cent to settle at 66,118.69. The index opened lower and fell further to a low of 65,549.96 in morning trade.
The deluge of offerings in the primary market, a muted results season and increasing talks of a Fed taper may quicken the pace of overseas investors selling Indian equities in the near term. The next few weeks may see a dozen companies tap the market for initial public offerings and raise about Rs 30,000 crore. These include the likes of Zomato, Glenmark Life Sciences, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank and Seven Islands Shipping.
From the Sensex pack, Power Grid, Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, HCL Technologies, Sun Pharma, Nestle, IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel and ITC were the major laggards. Tech Mahindra, Wipro, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, Titan and ICICI Bank were among the major gainers.
Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance jumped the most by 4.64 per cent. Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, ICICI Bank, NTPC, JSW Steel and Tata Steel were among the major gainers. Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, IndusInd Bank and HCL Technologies were the major laggards.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Maruti, Titan, Reliance Industries, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro and ITC were the major gainers.
The recent price correction in broader markets has hit cement companies hard. So far in the current month, smallcap firms like Visaka Industries, Andhra Cements NCL Industries, Sahyadri Industries, and KCP have lost 19.7 per cent, 14.3 per cent, 13.8 per cent, 13.5 per cent, and 11.5 per cent, respectively. On the contrary, largecap companies, while registering losses for the month, have seen a softer blow.
Among the Sensex firms, JSW Steel, Titan, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors and HDFC Bank were the biggest gainers. NTPC, Tech Mahindra, Maruti, State Bank of India and Larsen & Toubro were among the laggards.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty cut short their four-day gaining streak to close lower by half a per cent on Wednesday due to profit-taking in banking oil and metal stocks amid weak trends in global markets.
After two months of buying, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net sellers in October by pulling out Rs 12,278 crore from Indian markets. As per depositories data, FPIs took out Rs 13,550 crore from equities but invested Rs 1,272 crore in the debt segment during October 1-29. The total net outflow stood at Rs 12,278 crore during the period under review.
Neelesh Surana, who manages Mirae Asset Tax Saver and Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip, remains constructive on Indian equities from a three to five-year time frame.
Renewed inflationary pressures, led by a spike in prices of vegetables and cereals, have cast a spell on the equity markets in the past month. The BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have declined up to 2 per cent each during the period, clipping the 13 per cent rally from the March lows, shows data from ACE Equity. Investors typically consider shares of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies as defensive bets, putting their weight behind them in a falling market.
Majority of equity linked savings schemes as well as mid and small-cap funds outperformed their respective benchmark indices over a five-year period ended December 2015.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Nestle, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finance, Maruti and HDFC Bank were the major laggards.
Dwaipayan Bose on how index funds play a key role in the diversification of portfolios and help manage risks
'Midcap and smallcap indices are trading in the expensive zone.'
While gold returned 12 per cent annual gain in 10 years, Nifty didn't exceed 9 per cent.
Adani group opened a $1.2 billion copper plant, bought a port in Odisha, raised stakes in a cement company and stitched an alliance with rival Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries, all in a matter of one week in signs that the apples-to-airport conglomerate has shrugged off the Hindenburg effect and is back to rapid expansion spree. In the last one week, Adani group has through regulatory filings and press statements announced expansions and investments in its mainstay ports business, diversification into metal refining, fund infusion into a two-year-old cement foray and continuing progress in the commissioning of its mega solar project.
Among the Sensex firms, Axis Bank, Power Grid, Maruti, State Bank of India, Tata Motors, ITC, Nestle and Mahindra & Mahindra were the major gainers. Bajaj Finance and Larsen & Toubro were the laggards.
The one-year bank deposit and the 10-year government bond finished at the bottom in terms of returns for 10-year and five-year horizons, respectively. Surprisingly, property was the worst performing asset class for the 15-year period.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty on Friday reversed their six-session losing streak and rebounded more than 1 per cent on value buying in auto, IT, financial and energy stocks. Better than expected quarterly financial results of corporates also boosted investor sentiments even as uncertainties persisted over the escalating tensions in the Middle East, according to analysts. In a largely range-bound trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 634.65 points or 1.01 per cent to settle at 63,782.80 points.
The report also compares the entertainment and media market of India with China. It clearly states that the industry in India has grown because of a benign regulatory environment.
Among the Sensex firms, Nestle rose the most by 4.66 per cent. NTPC rose by 2.16 per cent, Reliance Industries by 1.53 per cent, State Bank of India by 1.04 per cent and Hindustan Unilever by 1.03 per cent. ITC, Power Grid and Bajaj Finance were the major gainers. Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv and Maruti were among the laggards.
From the Sensex pack, Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tech Mahindra and HDFC were the major laggards. Maruti, Tata Motors, Titan, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India and IndusInd Bank were the biggest gainers.
'For the next two years, we expect the bulk of earnings growth contribution from sectors like financials and energy, where the outlook remains positive, while the sectors which are linked to domestic consumption and are currently witnessing strains on margins have low salience for Nifty earnings.'
India remains one of the most over-owned market in Asia.
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
HUL was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 2 per cent, followed by TCS, ITC, Asian Paints, HDFC, HCL Tech and Nestle India.
From the Sensex pack, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv and ICICI Bank were the major gainers. Power Grid, Maruti, Tech Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, HCL Technologies and Axis Bank were among the laggards.
The government is expected to dole out some populist policies, especially for the rural / farm sector while presenting the interim budget, given that the country is heading towards general elections over the next few months.
Counterpoint Research estimates that Xiaomi will end CY23 with a volume market share in CY23 to 15 per cent, pushing the Chinese company, which has faced numerous challenges and scrutiny from investigative agencies, to the third place.
Despite the recent turmoil in the Indian markets after a scathing report on the Adani group from Hindenburg Research, American private equity major Blackstone is "bullish" on the India growth story and plans to invest more in the country's infrastructure and real estate projects. "We have a long-term view on India, as growth will be higher here. We have invested half of our Asia exposure in India. "Our extraordinary performance in India has made us bullish," said Jonathan Gray, president and chief operating officer of Blackstone.
This is the Mukesh Ambani-led company's second entry into the dairy segment and it will directly compete with Amul and Mother Dairy.
Equity benchmark Sensex rebounded 454 points on Thursday, boosted by gains in index heavyweight Reliance Industries amid a positive trend in global markets.
'Rhetoric and chest-thumping are running high on India's recent growth record.'
'But will the giant waves developing elsewhere allow us to sail smoothly into fair winds?' asks Debashis Basu.
Most markets have seen significant erosion in investors' wealth this year
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